Ship market recovery, wait ten years?
In the recently held twenty-third sessions, in Japan and South Korea,Europe, United States (JECKU) shipbuilders preparatory meeting, the Japanese Shipbuilding Industry Association (SAJ) points out, at presentthe global shipbuilding capacity is about 60000000 tons of modified total,but the market demand is only 30000000 compensated gross tons,overcapacity contradictions still serious. Forecast according to SAJ, the demand of global shipbuilding market in 2025 ~ 2035 will once againlarge-scale growth, to 2030 ~ in 2035 is expected to reach the balance of supply and demand. To this, the expert expresses, after the international financial crisis, the global new ship orders greatly reduced, the worlds major shipbuilding countries in recent years in the compressed capacity.If you take this into consideration, at the same time as the globalseaborne trade volume growth, the global shipbuilding market equilibriumpoint in time or will advance.
The JECKU shipbuilding experts will focus on the current reserve world shipbuilding industry is facing economic situation, development trend, the overall market situation, the typical ship shipbuilding capacity, supply and demand situation of national shipbuilding cost and environmental issuesconducted in-depth exchanges and discussions. Invited to attend the meeting of the deputy chief engineer of Economic Research Center Han Guang told reporters, although from around the world and industry experts put forward different views on some specific issues, but for the global shipbuilding market prospects generally optimistic, think that the future market demand growth is represent the general trend.
The future with the development of global economy, the internationalmaritime trade volume will grow steadily. According to SAJ projections, by 2020, this figure will reach 116.5 tons, by 2035 will reach 163.1 tons.This push, demand in the international shipbuilding market will begin to gain from 2020, in 2025 ~ 2035 growth is expected to return to the level of 2000 ~ 2010, 2030 ~ 2035 is expected to reach 60000000 tons ofmodified total. Delegates from the SAJ points out that, from the current point of view, prior to 2020, overcapacity contradictions will continue to affect most of the shipbuilding enterprise. Due to the lack of market demand, ship enterprise during which orders are mostly low ship orders.It is worth mentioning that, at present, many shipping enterprises are actively taking measures to cope with the weak market, ship, such as the development of more energy saving and environmental protection into the marine engineering equipment and offshore wind power field. "These practices should be continued, at the same time to strengthen theanalysis and prediction of shipbuilding market, provide a reference forthe development of enterprises." SAJ delegates said.
According to the British Simpson shipping consulting company (SSY)prediction, from 2020 onwards, the demand of global shipbuilding market will appear obvious growth. From the European ship and Marine Equipment Association (SEA) expert said the global economic integrationhas led the world seaborne trade volume growth, in the ease of shipping market capacity excess demand contradiction at the same time, it also brings some new ship needs. At the same time, because of the new ship orders greatly reduced, the worlds major shipbuilding countries in recent years are in the compression capacity, is conducive to the sustained and healthy development of shipbuilding industry. The latest statistical data of Clarkson Research Services Ltd shows, compared with 2012, Chinasshipbuilding capacity is currently a decrease of about 11%, a decrease of about 14% in Japan, South Korea is reduced by about 3%, a decrease of approximately 17% European countries.
According to statistics, in the past 17 years, the global average annualnew ship order quantity is 37600000 tons of modified total. According to Clark Song, the company forecast from 2016 to 2023, the global average annual new ship order quantity is 47900000 tons of modified total. By 2019, the global shipbuilding capacity will be reduced to 51700000compensated gross ton. From South Korea shipbuilding Association(KOSHIPA) the delegates that the shipbuilding capacity in many countriesbecause of sustained compression, plus new ship demand is expected togrow, the international shipbuilding market will begin to turn from 2016.
Although the overall demand in the international shipbuilding marketpresents growth trend, but specific to each type of ship, its growth will bedifferent. Han Guang said that, overall, bulk carriers, oil tankers,container ships and three main ship future market demand growth is relatively slow, but because the market is large in scale, still occupied the dominant position in the international shipbuilding market. In the bulkshipping, according to SAJ forecasts, from 2012 to 2035, the globalcargo shipping amount will maintain a growth rate of 2.1%, by 2035 will reach 60 tons, and the corresponding capacity requirement of 889000000 deadweight tons, compared with the current will be increased to nearly 200000000 tons deadweight capacity demand. In the oil tanker,to 2035, global crude oil shipping capacity will reach 37.5 tons, and the corresponding capacity requirement of 620000000 deadweight tons,compared with the current will add 120000000 tons deadweight capacitydemand. In container shipping, to 2035, the global container shippingvolume will reach 550000000 TEU, corresponding to the transport capacity of 39700000 TEU, compared with the current will add 23000000TEU capacity requirement.
"From this meeting, the green environmental protection is the focus of global shipbuilding industry at present. Delegates generally agreed thatto minimize the ship on the marine environment and atmospheric pollution, meet the new rules, new norms of International Maritime Organization and related agencies announced the implementation of therequirements, enterprises need to ship type, is devoted to the development of more environmentally friendly." Han Guang said that for China shipbuilding enterprises, this is not only an opportunity, but also a challenge. China shipbuilding enterprises should improve in theintelligent level of green shipbuilding technology and ship more efforts, toenhance the competitiveness of enterprises, in order to in the international ship market really warmed, occupy a commanding height of the market, get more orders for new ships.